50th Anniversary of « LIMITS TO GROWTH » (1972 - 2022)
In August 1970, the Club of Rome asked the MIT System Dynamics group to undertake a study of “the predicament of mankind” incorporating intertwined problems at the aggregated world level, including, e.g. widespread poverty, growing malnutrition and environmental degradation. This group sought to define the physical limits to population growth and the constraints resulting from economic activities on the planet. The problematisation of the authors of the Meadows report (1972), with the evocative title "Limits to Growth", was defined as follows:
“The intent of the project is to examine the complex of problems troubling men of all nations: poverty in the midst of plenty; degradation of the environment; loss of faith in institutions; uncontrolled urban spread; insecurity of employment; alienation of youth; rejection of traditional values; and inflation and other monetary and economic disruptions. These seemingly divergent parts of the "world problematique," as The Club of Rome calls it, have three characteristics in common: they occur to some degree in all societies; they contain technical, social, economic, and political elements; and, most important of all, they interact.” (1972, pp. 10-11).
In order to obtain a general assessment of the world situation, the MIT group chose a specific analytical method, developed by Jay W. Forrester (1971), called System Dynamics. The method would allow a graphical and numerical representation of key planetary relationships in easily understandable terms. The main objective of the study group at MIT was thus the recognition in a global context of the interdependencies and interactions of five critical factors: population explosion, food production, industrialization, depletion of natural resources and pollution.
Despite some criticism from economists, Limits to Growth quickly became a bestseller, translated into several languages and whose results (mainly the collapse hypothesis) were reported in the press. Limits to Growth was updated in 1992 and in 2002, the simulations of the model were also the subject of parallel works, reiterating the numerous conclusions of the original report (Smil, 2005, Turner, 2011, Bardi, 2011, MacKenzie, 2012, Burch, 2016, Jackson & Webster, 2017, O’Riordan, 2017, Branderhost, 2020).
The organisers of the International Colloquium "50th Anniversary of Limits to Growth (1972 - 2022)" intend to honour this anniversary by compiling a book consisting of extended abstracts by the contributors of our symposium. The book will aim to focus on the following themes:
The social, economic, environmental and political context in which the Limits to Growth report was written. Proposals could focus on analysing the links between the OECD, the Club of Rome and the authors of the report or on placing the report in the context of the Stockholm Summit.
Analysis of the Limits to Growth report, specifying its strengths and weaknesses, its main results, the methodology used (system dynamics), the type of model (simulation model), the computer programming used, its possible extensions (simulation games) or its articulation with the more technical Dynamics of Growth In a Finite World (Meadows et al., 1974).
The reactions to the publication of the report, in particular those of the Media and economists, the criticism of World 2 model (Forrester - Nordhaus), the consequences of the first oil shock, the response of economists to the projections of the World 3 model, comparisons in terms of methods (Systems Dynamics and Econometrics), the reference to the Steady State (Daly)
An analysis of the World 3 and other Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), Integrated System Models or a study of the state of the art of World Models. Proposals could provide progress-oriented ideas for developing useful models aimed at a sustainable society.
A re-examination of the results from the 1972, 1992 and 2002 editions in the light of new frameworks of reflection: the Planetary Boundaries (Rockstrom et al., 2009), a revision of World 3 (Turner, 2011), the circles of social life (James, 2015), Doughnut Economics (Raworth, 2017)... The actuality of the theses defended by the Limits to Growth report.
Interdisciplinarity of the Limits to Growth approach. How has the further development of integrating social aspects changed the methodology and possibilities in responding to the challenges identified in the original report and/or identifying new related elements?
The new perspective for the next 50 years, prospering within limits. Insights for the future. How will we be able to flourish in the future, knowing all the limits? Can we rethink the limits?
Final Papers have to be submitted before november 30th, 2022
The contributions of the Symposium will be published in a collective book (in English).
Two prizes will be awarded to published studies in the field of sustainability science based on excellence and relevance: The Donella Meadows Prize for a young researcher and the Erasme Prize for an expert researcher. Prizes will be awarded at the city hall, thursday december 1st, 7.00 pm.
Deadline
You have to create an account on Sciencesconf before uploading your abstract.
Final papers have to be submitted before november 30th, 2022
Two prizes will be awarded to published studies in the field of sustainability science based on excellence and relevance: The Donella Meadows Prize for a young researcher and the Erasme Prize for an expert researcher. Prizes will be awarded at the City Hall, thursday december 1st at 7.00 pm.
Registration fee :
350 euros for reseachers - oral presentation
150 euros for students (PhD, Post Doc) - oral presentation or participants (food accoodations - lunch and dinner)
0 euros for members of CERDI, ERASME, OPCD, HVL, UCA and Millennium Institute
0 euros for free auditor (no access to lunch and dinner)
A dinner is planned with lecturers, keynote speakers, members of iSDG Workshop and UCA - OPCD members at 7.30 pm 'OCEANIA, 82 Bd F. MItterand, 63000 Clermont-Ferrand